Is Labour secretly 12 points ahead?
Early on Sunday, ITN’s Paul Brand revealed that a senior Conservative MP had told him that internal Conservative Party polling put the Tories 12 points behind Labour, not the 1-2 points that recent...
View ArticleThe British Election Study in 10 charts
Today we got the results of the face-to-face component of the 2017 British Election Study. For those unfamiliar with the reasons why this is such a big deal, this is a random probability survey, with...
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We knew social media wasn't representative, but these numbers are incredible
As David Cameron once joked, Twitter isn't Britain. We know, for example, that polls that look good for Labour get more retweets than those that don’t, because Chris Hanretty ran the numbers. And we...
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No, there really, really, really, really, REALLY wasn’t a youthquake
As most readers will know by now, the British Election Study’s probability survey found no evidence of the substantial spike in turnout among under 25s at last year’s general election that, prior to...
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Is the rentquake analysis a spurious correlation?
Recently I wrote for Bloomberg View with some analysis of the 2017 election result and the importance of housing. The youthquake was in fact a rentquake, and the swing to Labour was entirely accounted...
View ArticleWe did a poll. Here’s why, and what we found
Last night, Number Cruncher Politics completed the fieldwork for a nationally representative opinion poll. I’d like to explain the motivation for doing it, and some of the findings. Since 2014, NCP...
View ArticleLabour comes up short
Results are still coming in from across England, so this is essentially a half-time report. But the picture emerging is that Labour has gone backwards slightly from 2014, missed most of its targets...
View ArticleNo, the public don't care
How often does Westminster Twitter go crazy about a story for days or even weeks on end, as if everything has changed, yet it doesn't even change the next poll? It may be cliché to talk about a...
View ArticlePolling small areas online
Background UK by-elections have been polled on and off at various points in history. Like national polling, polls of individual constituencies were traditionally done face-to-face, which was gradually...
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No, Boris Johnson Didn’t Get a Poll Boost From Catching Corona
The news that President Trump has tested positive for coronavirus has immediately prompted speculation around its potential affect on the US Presidential election. Since it always takes a while for...
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